An ALCES® landscape computer simulation model was used to explore and better understand potential outcomes of plausible oil and gas, tourism and mining land use scenarios for the North Yukon Planning Region (Table S-1). Land use scenarios, and the detailed parameters for each scenario, were developed by domain experts and through research. A number of different scenarios for each sector were not examined, as the range of plausible scenarios was considered to be relatively low.

The complete document is now available at this link.

The NYPC Scenario report:

  • Explores possible outcomes of plausible future land use scenarios in the North Yukon Planning Region (oil and gas, tourism and minerals);
  • Identifies and explores natural factors and human land uses and land use practices that act as key drivers of landscape change; and
  • Compares the potential outcomes of different future land use scenarios against a set of socio-economic, land use and ecological indicators.

Modelling results are not intended to be a prediction of future events in the North Yukon Planning Region. Scenario modelling was conducted to facilitate informed discussion about key land use issues and practices, levels of landscape change, and potential land use impacts. The authors fully acknowledge that future events, land uses and biophysical processes may unfold in potentially different and uncertain ways.

This project built upon the experiences and results of Kruse et al. (2004) and Berman et al. (2004) through the Sustainable Arctic Communities Initiative. Funding assistance was provided by the Environment Canada Northern Ecosystems Initiative and Yukon Land Use Planning Council, and is gratefully acknowledged.